Comparing Gaps and Vulnerability
This gap analysis highlighted needs for the Tucson MSA housing market to better serve different populations and income levels. The final component of the analysis is to compare a few of the indicators used in the gap analysis to the vulnerable areas of the Tucson MSA based on the Neighborhood Vulnerability Index.
Property Tax Delinquency and Vulnerability
For example, 22% of homeowners in the Tucson MSA are cost burdened (spending more than 30% of their household income on housing costs). While property taxes for homeowners in Tucson were found to be significantly lower than in other large cities across the country, property taxes are a cost of home ownership. Property taxes along with mortgage payments, utilities, and maintenance, contribute to the overall cost burden. A review of Pima County property tax delinquency data found that more than half (58%) of tax delinquent properties are located in vulnerable neighborhoods (42% of tracts in Pima County are vulnerable in some way). This data included homeowners with at least $50 in delinquent property taxes dating back to 2018 (the median tax owed is $913). The table below shows more detail.
| Vulnerability Level | Count | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Most Vulnerable | 159 | 10% |
| More Vulnerable | 406 | 27% |
| Vulnerable | 317 | 21% |
| Not Vulnerable | 641 | 42% |
| Total | 1,523 | 100% |
Renter Housing Cost Burden and Vulnerability
The gap analysis revealed that renters with the lowest household incomes have the highest rate of housing cost burden. The map below shows those Census tracts that are vulnerable according to the Neighborhood Vulnerability Index and where more than 60% of rental households are housing cost burdened - 34 tracts in the Tucson MSA met both those criteria, most of them within City of Tucson limits.
Click here for Full Screen Map
Median House Price Changes and Vulnerability
The figure below illustrates the connection between neighborhood vulnerability and median house prices. While median house prices continue to rise across the Tucson MSA, there were 45 Census tracts that were both vulnerable in some way and experienced a negative change in median house price between 2013 and 2018. In contrast, there were only nine Census tracts in the Tucson MSA that were both vulnerable and experienced more than 25% median house price increase in the same timeframe.
