Read About Statistics on Public Safety in Tucson, Arizona MSA
How are we doing?
The Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) had a rate of 383.2 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2024. That was lower than the state rate of 421.9 violent crimes per 100,000 residents. Arizona had the fourth-highest violent crime rate per capita when compared to the western states. New Mexico had the highest violent crime rate at 717.1 per 100,000 residents, while Utah had the lowest rate at 229.6. Of the violent crime data available at the MSA level, Tucson’s rate was comparable to Portland and San Diego. A breakdown of violent crime by type is available at the MSA level and can be found on the Comparison Page.
Why is it important?
Crime rates have important social and economic implications for the development of communities, especially at the neighborhood level. They can impact perceptions of resident safety and community involvement, and consequently population dynamics of a region. High crime rates can also lead to gentrification as geographically mobile households relocate to improve perceptions of safety and neighborhood satisfaction. Increased social involvement and community engagement by residents have been linked to reduced crime rates and consequently improved quality of life.
How do we compare?
Tucson's rate of homicide per 100,000 residents of 7.4 was the fifth-highest among peer western MSAs in 2022. That was an improvement from 2020 when Tucson had the fourth-highest rate. San Diego had the lowest rate at 2.9 while Albuquerque had the highest at 12.2. These data come from the National Center for Health Statistics - Mortality Files and include the number of deaths due to homicide per 100,000 residents between 2016 and 2022.
Tucson had a high rate of deaths due to firearms per 100,000 residents when compared to peer western MSAs in 2022. Tucson's rate of 19.9 placed it with the third-highest rate among peers. San Diego had the lowest rate of firearm fatalities at 6.7 while Albuquerque had the highest at 25.5. These data come from the National Center for Health Statistics - Mortality Files. Gun violence is one of the leading contributors to premature death in the United States. Firearm fatalities include both suicides and homicides.
Property crime occurred at a much higher rate than violent crime across all MAP Dashboard geographies in 2024. Among the 12 western MSAs, Tucson had the fifth-highest rate of larceny at 1,936.9 crimes per 100,000 residents, the fifth-lowest rate of motor vehicle theft at 323.0, and the fifth-lowest rate of burglary at 259.6. San Antonio reported the highest rate of larceny among the peer MSAs at 2,240.5 crimes per 100,000 residents, while Albuquerque had the highest rates of burglary (588.7) and motor vehicle theft (725.1). (Click on and off geographies in the legend to filter the chart below.)
What are the key trends?
Tucson’s violent crime rate fell by 41.0% from a high of 649.7 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2005 to 383.2 in 2024. This was also down from Tucson’s violent crime rate of 473.5 in 2020 and from the recent peak of 499.0 in 2017. Prior to that increase, Tucson’s violent crime rate had declined to 421.4 in 2015, the lowest rate recorded since 2009. Arizona’s violent crime rate followed a similar pattern to Tucson, declining between 2007 and 2014 before increasing again through 2017 and then gradually declining to 421.9 in 2024. The violent crime rate in the U.S. generally trended downward over the past two decades, despite a temporary increase between 2015 and 2020. Another notable trend is diverging crime rates in southern border cities Tucson, El Paso, and San Diego (see the trend chart with all geographies on the Comparison Page). While all three border cities had comparable levels of violent crime in 2009, only Tucson saw an increased violent crime rate since that time; both El Paso and San Diego have experienced significant rate declines (around 21% each).
How is it measured?
Violent and property crime data are from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting System (UCR), which collects crime statistics from law enforcement agencies nationwide. The FBI publishes UCR statistics annually. Several key limitations of the data result from differences in collection methods at the local level. For example, the FBI began collecting data for forcible rape under an expanded, revised definition in 2013. State-level violent crime rates are measured using the revised definition; however, the total U.S. violent crime rate still uses the legacy definition of rape to maintain 20-year trend reporting. Accordingly, violent and property crime levels have been scaled to population levels, so as to compute a rate comparable across geographies.
Data on homicide and firearm fatality rates come from the County Health Rankings, which compiles data from multiple sources on a variety of topics. The homicide and firearm data are specifically from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) - Mortality Files. Mortality data from the NCHS is produced by NCHS and each state's vital statistics office. Death registration is based on state law; death certificates are filed and maintained in each state's vital statistics office.
