Analyze High School Graduation Rates in Tucson, Arizona MSA

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Percent of Public High School Students Graduating in Four Years (2022)

In 2022, Arizona had 77.3% of public high school students graduating on time, ranking last out of the nine western states, data was unavailable for New Mexico. Texas ranked highest with 89.7% of public high school students graduating in four years. Within Arizona, Greenlee County had the highest graduation rate, with 94.0% of students graduating with their peers in 2023. Pima County placed last among Arizona counties with 71.2% graduating on time.

Why is it important?

Those who do not finish high school are much more likely to be unemployed, and when employed, their earnings fall far below those with a high school degree or higher. This gap can add up to a substantial deficit in earnings over a lifetime. Economic consequences follow through to the community at large with lower wages, less spending power, and the likelihood of higher costs for public assistance. A high school diploma, or its equivalent, is the basic prerequisite to college or trade school.

How do we compare?

Arizona followed the same general pattern as the U.S. in 2022, with respect to graduation rates by race and ethnic origin. However, Arizona rates fell short of national graduation rates across the board. In both Arizona and nationwide, more Asian students graduated on time than any other race or ethnicity. Arizona had 73.4% of Hispanic students and 71.9% of Black or African American students graduating on time, while nationwide, 82.8% and 81.0%, respectively, graduated on time. Between the U.S. and Arizona, the largest gap, a 9.4 percentage point difference, in graduation rates existed for Hispanic students. In contrast, the smallest gap, a 4.4 percentage point difference, existed for Asian students.

At 94.0%, Greenlee County had the highest percentage of public high school students graduating with their peers in 2023. Pima had only 71.2%, placing it last among Arizona counties.

What are the key trends?

The high school graduation rate for the U.S. rose from 79.0% in 2011 to 86.6% in 2022, an increase of 7.6 percentage points over 11 years. During the same 11-year period, the percent of high school students graduating on time in Arizona peaked in 2016 at 79.5%, dropped in 2021 to 76.4%, and increased slightly to 77.3% in 2022. Pima County, which is also the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), displayed a similar trend, peaking in 2016 at 77.6% and then dropping to 70.7% in 2021. Pima County's high school graduation rate increased slightly in 2022 but fell to 71.2% in 2023.

How is it measured?

The graduation rate of public high schools is based on the four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR). The “cohort” measure of four-year graduation is the share of students who comprise a ninth-grade class and graduate by the fourth year, including transfers into the class, minus those who transfer out and deceased students. For example, those entering ninth grade in the 2008-2009 school year comprise the cohort measured by the 2012 data. State-level graduation rate data comes from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). County-level data comes from the Arizona Department of Education. NCES imputed the data from Virginia to come up with the Native American total.