Examine Housing Affordability Trends in Tucson, Arizona MSA

How are we doing?

Housing Affordability (2025)
Share of Household Median Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home
 

In 2025, a household earning the median income in the Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) would need to spend 43.7% of its annual income to purchase a median-priced home, slightly above the national share of 43.1%. While Tucson remains one of the more affordable housing markets among peer MSAs, housing costs remain well above affordability thresholds.

Housing is generally considered affordable when a household spends less than 30% of its income on its housing-related costs. When housing costs exceed that threshold, households are likely to face trade-offs that limit their spending on other necessities, such as healthcare, childcare, transportation, and food.

Why is it important?

Housing affordability impacts both household financial well-being and the long-term health of the regional economy. For most households, a home is their largest asset, and housing costs affect how income is allocated across other essential and discretionary spending, including childcare, education, health care, and leisure activities. Historically, households are considered cost-burdened when housing expenditure exceeds 30% of their income. This designation evolved from the United States National Housing Act of 1937. Home prices are influenced by several factors, including mortgage rates, demographics, income growth, new housing supply, and speculative trends. 

Housing affordability can also influence a region's ability to attract and retain workers. When housing affordability decreases, it can become more difficult for employers to recruit employees and for households to remain in the communities where they work. Housing affordability is measured by the share of income that a household earning the local median income would need to spend to purchase the local median-priced home. Housing affordability data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

How do we compare?

Housing affordability in Tucson has changed considerably over the past two decades as home prices, incomes, and mortgage rates have fluctuated. Tucson’s least affordable period for housing occurred just before the Great Recession. In 2006, a median-income household needed to spend 45.4% of its income to purchase a median-priced home. Affordability improved significantly during the housing market correction, with the share of income required to purchase the median-priced home falling below the 30% cutoff and remaining there for much of 2009 to 2021. Since 2021, affordability has fallen as home prices have increased faster than wages. That, coupled with higher interest rates, has pushed the share of income needed to afford the median-priced home above the affordability threshold. More recently, affordability conditions have begun to ease in Tucson. Since mid-2025, affordability has improved modestly as home prices have softened and household incomes have increased.

Use the drop-down menu above the graph to view housing affordability trends across Tucson's peer MSAs. 

Despite recent affordability challenges, Tucson remains one of the most affordable regions in which to purchase a home compared with peer western MSAs. In 2025, the median sales price of a single-family home in Tucson was $387,400, well below the national level and many comparable MSAs. In contrast, San Diego’s median home price exceeded $1 million in 2024 and continued to increase in 2025. 

Median Home Price (2025)

What are the key trends?

Tucson's housing affordability trend has generally mirrored national patterns. Affordability improved following the Great Recession as home prices declined and remained below the affordability threshold for more than a decade. Beginning in 2021, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates pushed affordability above the threshold, where it has remained since. As of March 2026, a household in Tucson earning the median income would need to spend 40.6% of its income to afford a median-priced home. While affordability in Tucson remains above the affordability cutoff, it is slightly lower than the national average (42.0%) and Phoenix (41.9%).

How is it measured?

Housing affordability data come from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM), which provides a monthly measure of the median-income household's ability to afford the median-priced home. HOAM includes the full cost of homeownership, including monthly principal and interest, current mortgage interest rates, taxes, property insurance, and private mortgage insurance. HOAM uses the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) 30 percent of income affordability threshold to measure affordability. The HOAM uses median household income from the U.S. Census Bureau, median sales price data from Zonda Home, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates from Freddie Mac, while assuming a 10% down payment. Private mortgage insurance (PMI) is estimated at 0.558% of the mortgage amount. The data is reported monthly, and the Making Action Possible (MAP) research team aggregates it into an annual total.