The MAP Dashboard reports voter turnout rates for each presidential and mid-term election. The voter turnout rate for the state of Arizona during the 2024 presidential election was 57.6% (Figure 1). That was 2.7 percentage points lower than the rate during the 2020 presidential election. Arizona ranked seventh out of the 10 western states among the voting-age population that cast a ballot in 2024. The voter turnout rate in Pima County (Tucson Metropolitan Statistical Area) was 60.9%, higher than the state and national rates. This suggests a higher level of civic engagement in Tucson than statewide or nationally. Higher voter turnout rates are desirable as they better reflect the will of the people.
Figure 1: Voter Turnout Rate (2024 Presidential Election)
The Brookings Institute released a report in early January that explored what the election results told us for each state. The results can provide insight into the weaknesses and challenges each party will face in upcoming elections. According to the Brookings report, every state in 2024 showed a swing in favor of Republic candidate Donald Trump. Overall, the popular vote swung by six points in Trump’s favor. Trump’s gain in the seven swing states was smaller than the difference posted nationally, but Arizona matched his nationwide improvement. Figure 2 highlights the Democratic margin in 2020 compared to 2024 for the seven swing states. Arizona had the largest difference. The Brookings report notes that this is in part due to Trump’s success in gaining ground among Latino voters.
Figure 2: Democratic Party margins in swing states, 2020 to 2024
The Brookings report suggests that for Democrats the large swings seen in solidly Democratic states imply disillusionment among Democrats. The report notes that Democrats faced challenges around crime, homelessness, high rents, and the shortage of affordable homes. Additionally, the report highlights that some of the most Democratic counties experienced the greatest drop in turnout which accounted for a large share of the swing toward Trump. However, there were also significant increases in Republic votes, particularly in New York and California. To read more check out the What the nation told us in 2024, state by state article.
According to an article published by the Pew Research Center, Arizona was one of four states that Republican Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential election but also elected a Democratic senator. There were 34 Senate elections this year, and the mismatch rate of 12% was the highest since the 2017-2018 election. The Pew article reports that President-Senate mismatches used to be common before 1990 but the trend has been declining (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Most Senate races go the same way as states' presidential vote
Arizona’s turnout rate of 57.6% in 2024 was nearly three percentage points lower than in 2020. That equates to about 338,000 less votes. Within Arizona, five of the 15 counties reported higher turnout rates in 2024 than in 2020. Pinal County reported a turnout rate of 58.0% in 2024 compared to 54.7% in 2020, the largest gain among the Arizona counties. Apache County reported the largest decline in turnout with a difference of 6.6 percentage points, falling from 74.1% to 67.5%. Pima County (the same geographic location as the Tucson MSA) posted a decline of 2.1 percentage points with a 60.9% turnout rate in 2024. To learn more about voter turnout rates for the Arizona counties, check out the MAP Dashboard comparison page.
