Charting the Recovery in Arizona's Trade

Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi, Senior Regional Scientist and Associate Professor

Pinpoint Shadow  Analyzing the Revival of Trade in Arizona, USA

As the world enters the third year of the COVID-19 crisis, Arizona’s trade with the world – one of the key engines of economic growth – shows both troubling and encouraging developments. A recent article on the Arizona Mexico Indicator’s website explored data from 2021 to assess the COVID-19 disruption and recovery of Arizona’s trade. As Figure 1 illustrates there was a significant reduction in trade in 2020, the largest since World War II.

Figure1: Arizona Trade with World 2020 and 2021 (% change from same month year ago)

Trade Figure 1

To better assess the recovery, the 2021 trade is compared with the pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Figure 2 shows Arizona’s world trade on monthly basis in 2020 and 2021 as percent change from the same month in the pre-pandemic year 2019. Data for the U.S. trade are plotted as a reference for Arizona’s trend. Following the initial shock caused by COVID-19 in March of 2020, the reduction in Arizona’s trade, although dramatic, was not as deep as the reduction of trade at national level. However, as the recovery picked up in the second half of 2020 and continued through 2021, Arizona’s rates lagged behind the national trend for most part of the entire period. The two exceptions were winter months when Arizona’s rates matched or exceeded those at the national level. In contrast to the national average, Arizona's trade in the second half of 2021, although considerably above 2020 levels, was still below pre-pandemic 2019. Data for the end of the year show increase of close to 11 % above 2019 level and instill hope of better times.

Figure 2: U.S. and Arizona World Trade in 2020 and 2021 Compared to 2019

Trade Figure 2

To read the full article about Arizona’s trade with Mexico since the COVID-19 pandemic visit the Arizona Mexico Indictor’s website. The article includes detailed information on Arizona’s top exports and imports, how the pandemic impacted traded with Mexico by product type, and overall trends.