Youth Disconnection in Tucson, Arizona MSA
Arizona has a notably high rate of disconnected youth compared to other western states. Disconnected youth are individuals who are not in school or employed, which includes both teenagers between the ages of 16 and 19, as well as young adults from 20 to 24. The term "opportunity youth" is frequently used as a synonym for "disconnected youth."
In 2023, 6.8% of U.S. teenagers aged 16 to 19 were neither working nor in school, representing 1.18 million young Americans. Arizona had a disconnection rate of 8.1%, the third highest among the 10 western states. Nevada had the highest youth disconnection rate at 9.8%, while Utah had the lowest at just 6.2%. Compared to 12 peer Western Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Tucson ranked 5th from the bottom, with 7.3% of its youth considered disconnected. Figure 1 illustrates the youth disconnection rate for select states and MSAs.
Figure 1: Youth Disconnection Rates by State and MSAs (16-19 Years Old ) 2023
The youth disconnection rate rises when we extend the range to 18 to 24 years old. According to the NCES (National Center for Education Statistics), in 2022, the percentage of young adults in this age range who were neither enrolled in school nor working in the U.S. was 13.1%. In contrast, the 2015 youth disconnection rate was 14.8%, indicating a decrease of nearly two percentage points over a period of seven years. This translates to approximately 70,000 more young individuals gaining access to opportunities that lead to a more promising and independent future.
Why is it important?
Being disconnected from both the education system and the job market during these formative years can be discouraging and detrimental to young adults. Newport Institute highlights the negative consequences of youth disconnection, including reduced lifetime earnings, substance use, poor health, and criminal behavior.
Youth disconnection serves as a key indicator of a community's potential and reflects the level of opportunity available to its residents. It is closely linked to the overall well-being of a region and the broader health of the national economy. An article from the Social Science Research Council highlights that disconnected youth , on average, earn $38,400 less each year than their connected counterparts when they reach their thirties, underscoring the economic impact of youth disconnection.
How do we compare?
According to the NCES, in 2022 the overall “status dropout rate” (defined as the percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not enrolled in high school and lack a high school credential) for the U.S. was 5.3%.
From 2010 to 2022, the status dropout rate in the United States decreased across all age groups, except for 16-year-olds, who experienced a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points. Among the age groups, the most significant decline occurred among 20-to-24-year-olds, with the status dropout rate decreasing from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.4% in 2022. Following closely behind were 19-year-olds, with a difference of 3.5 percentage points. Figure 2 illustrates the national status dropout rates by age between 2010 and 2022.
Figure 2: National Status Dropout Rates of 16-To-24-Year-Olds, by Age: 2010 and 2022
In 2023, girls and young women in the U.S. were less likely to be disconnected than boys and young men, with 6.1% and 7.5% disconnection rates, respectively. The state of Utah had the largest gender gap in youth disconnection rates. For those aged 16–19, the youth disconnection rate for males was 7.4%, while the rate for females was substantially lower at 5.0%. The state of Arizona followed a similar trend, with a youth disconnection rate of 8.9% for males and 7.3% for females.
In all peer metropolitan areas, females had lower disconnection rates than males, with the exception of the Colorado Springs and El Paso MSAs. In both of these MSAs, the disconnection rate difference between the genders was 0.6 percentage points. The Salt Lake City MSA exhibited the widest gap among peer MSAs in favor of females, with a 2.5 percentage point difference, indicating that females were significantly less disconnected than males. Figure 3 displays the youth disconnection by gender (U.S., Arizona, and MSAs).
Figure 3: Youth Disconnection Rates by Gender: U.S, States, and MSAs (16-19 Years Old ) 2023
The rates of disconnected youth vary by race and ethnicity across the country. As of 2022, Native American youth had the highest disconnection rate at 21.9 percent, surpassing all other major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Arizona reported the highest disconnection rate among young Native Americans at 27.3%, followed by New Mexico at 24.7% and California at 21.6%. Black/African American teens and young adults had the second-highest disconnection rate in the U.S. at 16.8%. Nevada had the highest rate of youth disconnection among Black/African Americans at 26.4%, while Arizona had the lowest at 14.5%.
Of all the states observed on the MAP, higher rates of youth disconnection were reported for young Hispanics and Latinos compared to white, non-Hispanic youth. In the case of the MAP western MSAs, only Las Vegas had higher rates of youth disconnection for white, non-Hispanic youth (14.3%) than for young Hispanics and Latinos (12.9%).
The state of Arizona reported the largest gap between these two groups, with a 7.0 percentage point higher disconnection rate for young Hispanics and Latinos compared to white, non-Hispanic youth. Washington posted the smallest gap, with only a 0.1 percentage point difference. Among tracked western MSAs, Denver posted the largest gap between these two groups (a 7.2 percentage point difference), and Austin had the smallest gap (a 2.4 percentage point difference). Figure 4 shows the youth disconnection rate by race (U.S., states, and MSAs).
Figure 4: Youth Disconnection Rates by Race: U.S., States, and MSAs (16-24 Years Old ) 2022
Among young workers aged 14 to 24 in Tucson, 30.9% worked in the accommodation and food services sector in 2023. This rate was higher than both the state (28.0%) and the U.S. (25.4%). An additional 20.1% worked in the retail sector. The health care and social assistance sector accounted for 12.4% of jobs held by Tucson’s 14- to 24-year-olds. The percentage of youth workers employed in the Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services sector was considerably higher in Arizona and the Tucson MSA, at 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively, compared to the U.S. (5.9%). Figure 5 highlights the share of employment for younger workers in Tucson by industry. Click on the drop-down menu to view Arizona or the U.S.
Figure 5: Employment Sectors for Younger Workers Age 14 to 24 (2023)
As illustrated in Figure 6, the rate of disconnected youth declined from 2009 to 2018 across all western states and in ten out of the 12 MSAs. However, from 2018 to 2023, disconnection rates in most western states trended upward. In contrast, for the 12 MSAs, increases and decreases balanced each other out.
The disconnected youth rate in Arizona decreased from 8.5% to 8.1% between 2018 and 2023, while the national rate remained unchanged. Among the states, only four experienced a decrease in the disconnected youth rate. Oregon reported the largest increase in disconnected youth during this period, rising from 7.0% to 7.8%. Among MSAs, the Portland MSA posted the highest increase in disconnected youth, from 4.9% to 7.1%. In contrast, the Colorado Springs MSA reported a marginal difference of just 0.2 percentage points between 2018 and 2023.
Figure 7: Youth Disconnection Rates Trend, 16-19 Years Old (2009-2023)
Since 2010, the youth unemployment rate in Arizona fell more quickly than the national rate until 2017, when both met at 9.2%. In early 2020, during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the youth unemployment rate surged by 6.7 percentage points nationally (up to 15.1%) and by 6.2 percentage points in Arizona (up to 15.4%) compare to late 2019. The youth unemployment rate then rapidly declined to pre-pandemic levels nationally and in Arizona between 2020 and 2021 to respective rates of 9.7% and 8.7%. That marked the first time in 11 years that the youth unemployment rate in Arizona was lower than the national average. In 2023, both Arizona and the nation reached a significant milestone as the youth unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2010, recorded at 8.4% for Arizona and 7.9% for the nation as a whole. Figure 8 highlights the youth unemployment rate trends in the U.S. and Arizona (2010-2023).
Figure 8: Youth Unemployment Rate Age 16 to 24 (2010-2023)
What's Next?
The 2023 Evaluation Report from the Opportunity Youth Forum suggests that enhancing various systems—including education, workforce development, human services, and justice—will reduce the number of opportunity youth. This will be achieved by eliminating obstacles and improving access to and success in educational and career pathways.
